Scanning the horizon - insights from this year’s UnConference

Each year, our UnConference brings together 150 people from policy, business and culture and uses Open Space Technology to surface and explore emerging issues for a just and sustainable transition. As well as helping to foster new networks amongst our community, the event plays an invaluable role for the Accelerator as part of our horizon scanning, helping us to get an annual 'temperature check' on different parts of the sustainability transition ecosystem, and identify emerging topics for ongoing enquiry.

Honouring the spirit of this decentralized, self-organized event, we won’t attempt to summarise everything that happened during the day. There will be as many perspectives as there were people in the room (and if you’re interested, we link to a few of those other perspectives at the bottom of the post). Instead, here’s a quick summary of three themes that captured our imagination – and that we will convene further discussions around in the months ahead.

The past decades have seen a rapidly evolving discussion of public engagement on climate, with ongoing tussles about the ethics and efficacy of behaviour change campaigns, citizen assemblies and more.

Evidence from the UnConference demonstrated a growing appetite for a broadening and deepening of our approach to this topic. Some groups zoomed in on how to rethink the role of established structures (trade unions, citizens assemblies, housing groups). Others explored new frameworks for action – in particular a growing emphasis on the power and promise of adaptation pathways. Often deprioritized in favour of mitigation, we were struck by the number of conversations that placed adaption at the heart of our collective response – not only as a necessity in a warming world, but also a key strategy to generate broader engagement and momentum for mitigation. Thinking more broadly, such questions connect to a wider exploration of how to unlock a how to unlock the potential of a 'full spectrum' of human emotion - from righteous anger to communal co-creation - to drive positive progress.

At the Accelerator, we’ll be asking: As we reach the midpoint of the decisive decade for climate, what new forms of public engagement can have greatest impact? And what kinds of partnership can accelerate their emergence and impact?

Over the last two years, we’ve seen systems thinking enjoy something of golden moment, as many turn to this previously niche topic to grapple with the complexity of both our current systems and the world to come. UnConference groups tackled this in various ways, ranging from hands-on sharing of tips and tools to broader ambitions to redesign a global system.

We’re encouraged to see a growing confidence in the application of systems-thinking in more nuanced ways, stepping beyond simple cause-and-effect levers to engage with issues of emergence and deep uncertainty. Some of the richest conversations we overheard were in this direction - sidestepping the reliance on data-driven maximalism to solve human problems (bigger models! more data!), and examining the qualitative and cultural factors that get the most out of systems thinking models.

At the Accelerator, we’ll be asking: As climate realities increasingly reveal the limits of traditional modelling and analysis, how might concepts of emergence and uncertainty enable better decision-making at institutional and societal levels?

There’s a line of thought that many parts of the transition ecosystem are currently dealing with a crisis of narrative, a kind of extended hangover since the last high-water mark of optimism surrounding COP26. A lot has changed since then, both good and bad. Dramatically heightened public awareness and demonstrable progress to decarbonize whole sectors of the economy are visible and deserve celebration, but are inevitably balanced by fears of a fragmenting geopolitical landscape, increasing friction in systemic change and the reality that limiting global temperature increase to 1.5C is almost certainly out of reach. As a result, the simpler narratives of 'save 1.5' are dissolving into a series of more nuanced and diffuse discussions.

The UnConference offered up multiple data points on this, with divergent views regarding scope of sustainability itself (carbon emissions vs biodiversity and planetary boundaries), pathways to progress (from targeting megavillains to win-wins of green growth), questions of stakeholders and audience (multigenerational perspectives, non-human beings), and multiple efforts to complicate our understanding of this moment in history. In this final area, conversations were much less likely to centre on saving the planet and instead focus more on notions staying with the trouble and thrutopia.

Because the transition needs to engage materially with the reality of everything from critical minerals and supply chains to circular systems and urban fabric, this question of meaning is easy to put 'on the back burner'. But as participants repeatedly asserted, and history tells us, stories matter – and these contested and evolving narratives will play a material role in helping to structure and co-ordinate our collective efforts.

At the Accelerator, we’ll be asking: As time moves apace and our understanding evolves, what must we hold on to, and what must we let go of? What stories and practices continue to be of use, and what must we learn to leave behind?

Over the coming months, we’ll be hosting conversations on these topics online and then face to face at Chatham House. Please jump into the discussion on the LinkedIn page if you want to get involved.

If you want to dig deeper, we encourage you to check out other perspectives on the UnConference from those who attended it (including fantastic posts here, here and here). And if there’s something else from the day you feel is worthy of further discussion – please raise it on the LinkedIn page.

In the meantime – thank you again to everyone who spent the day with us, and to our event partners Improbable for facilitating with such gusto and humanity. Stay tuned…